Predicting the future of any endeavor is both a simple and an impossible task. It is simple because there are only two possible outcomes: some things will change, while others will remain the same. The impossible part is knowing which things fall into each category. The saving grace for any prognosticator is that the future never really arrives. Whenever tomorrow becomes today, there is always a new tomorrow in which the dreams of the forecaster may still come true. As the American Library Association (ALA) and the Reference and User Services Association (RUSA) plan for the future, several authors have been invited to present their views of the future of reference services. This paper represents the vision of one long-time reference librarian.
It is only when tomorrow becomes the past - and the predictor becomes the historian - that any forecast can truly be measured. Likewise, it is only by understanding the past that any sense can be made of the present and any predictions made for the future. The future of reference service - and of libraries themselves -- will not be a revolutionary process, but an evolutionary one. In order to see where we will be in the future, we must begin by looking at the past. By understanding the relationship of reference service to the library and of the library to its community, we can make a stronger case for how those relationships will evolve in the future.
In its original sense, the role of instruction was intended to help members of the newly educated public learn how a library is organized so that they could take advantage of the knowledge contained in its books. Today's libraries are much more complex than those in Green's time, containing more resources in more formats serving more people in more locations. Instruction, on both a formal and informal basis, has become an even greater part of a reference librarian's responsibilities.
The second function of the reference librarian, answering user questions, is the one that is most often associated with reference service. To many, the standard image of the reference librarian is of a kindly and knowledgeable woman sitting at a desk in a room full of reference books and patrons approaching with questions great and small. It is this function of the reference librarian that has received the most publicity in recent years. Unobtrusive studies indicate that reference librarians provide correct answers only slightly more than one-half of the time (the 55% rule) and statistical studies indicate that the numbers of questions asked of reference librarians are declining. These perceptions of poor quality and declining quantity have provided much of the initiative for rethinking reference.
Green's third function of a reference librarian - aiding readers in the selection of good works - is the link between the librarian's knowledge of the collections and the needs of the users. Originally, the word "good" referred to morally and spiritually uplifting books. Today, we interpret good to mean appropriate, as in those sources that are most relevant to a user's needs. In public libraries, this service is most commonly known as Reader's Advisory. However, the practice of aiding the reader in the selection of good works goes far beyond recommending novels and mysteries. With the growth in the number of electronic resources and the advent of the Internet, the reference librarian recommends sources and search strategies in almost every interaction with a library patron.
The final activity of the librarian was to publicize the library within the community. Green realized that the library was only one instrument of the greater community and that its success depended on recognition by the parent community. Visibility was the key. Green wanted his reference librarians wandering around the library looking for people to help, much along the lines of the "roving reference librarian" service model. By having librarians available to the public, he believed that the public would better understand, appreciate, and support the work of those librarians. He clearly understood the need to relate the workings of the library to the needs of its parent community.
Secondly, Green places a strong emphasis on the "personal relations" between librarians and readers. Many of the services which the librarian was envisioned to provide could have been accomplished in other ways. Readers could have answered their own queries by consulting encyclopedias and other reference works; readers could have done their own advisory by searching the library catalogue; and readers could have learned how a library operates by trial and error. The fact that the librarian was personally engaged in each of these functions - and personalized them for each reader - was the key to the success of Green's program. It is precisely this personalization of service that made the fourth function - promoting the library within the community - work so well. Without personal service, reference work would never have become a standard function of libraries.
Although it has taken hundreds of years, the evolution of libraries has been constantly moving in one direction - from internally focused institutions to externally focused institutions. Ancient libraries were centered on the documents that they contained, preserving them for the few within their society who could use them. Organizational systems were designed to help the librarian find those documents, with no need for outsiders to comprehend their design. Modern libraries focus on the users, providing information and services that benefit each individual on a personal basis. By any measure, including circulation, exit count, acquisitions, and funding levels, libraries are more popular today than at any time throughout history. By providing personal service, reference librarians have had a direct impact in making libraries succeed.
While we often focus our thoughts on change to the technology and tools that we use, a more profound change is continually taking place around us. Today's communities are much more diverse ethnically, racially, linguistically, and economically than those of a century ago. As a community changes, the library must redesign itself to meet the needs of the new demographics. The librarian needs to establish personal relations with each new generation of community members, even when that generation speaks Spanish, Mandarin, or Punjabi. The librarian also needs to serve the community wherever it is located, whether in the library, at home, at work, or traveling around the globe. Technology expands the reach of the library to the community - and the community's demands upon the library.
Constants
The library will be measured by its service to the community. Libraries must always remember that they are part of a greater community. Serving the needs of that community is the sole reason for existence of the library, and will be the sole measure of success.
Reference Librarians will perform the four functions outlined by Green. Instruction, assisting with research, recommending sources, and promoting the library in the community will remain central to the mission of the reference librarian.
Personal service will be valued. In an increasingly impersonal world, the librarian will continue to provide personalized service to patrons. Personal service is what will differentiate the library from other information providers.
Changes
Newer and better tools will be developed. While the functions of the librarian will remain the same, the tools with which those functions are performed will change dramatically. Products such as Reference 24/7 and LSSI's Virtual Reference Desk are beginning to make remote reference service as good as traditional in-person reference service. Technology will continue to provide us with new tools that make our services better and faster.
The demand for instruction will rise. Libraries are more complex now than at any time in history. We offer more different formats and more access points than ever before. In addition, the Internet provides users with direct access to an overwhelming amount of unedited information. The community needs the librarian to teach how to find, and more importantly, how to evaluate, information sources.
The demand for factual information will decrease. The Internet provides users with direct access to basic information on every topic imaginable. Patrons who use the Internet can easily find simple facts without intervention by the librarian. This is reflected in the downward trend of reference statistics throughout the nation. Future questions that the librarian receives will be much more involved and will require more of the librarian's research skills.
The community will become more diverse. Communities will continue to evolve and will broaden demographically. Libraries will need to provide resources and reference services to people of a much wider cultural range than they do today.
The librarians will become more diverse. Mirroring the change in the community, the librarians themselves will be a much more diverse group of people. The American Library Association's Spectrum program is an attempt to jump-start this process, but it is a natural consequence of the diversification of the community. Diversity among librarians will happen with or without the Spectrum initiative - Spectrum merely speeds the process.
Librarians will become information generators rather than merely information conservators. Perhaps the most significant change in the next century will be the creation of a new role for libraries and librarians. The nature of publishing is going to change and libraries are going to play a greater part in the process. Many of the seeds of this change have already been planted. Projects such as SPARC, Infomine, and the Librarian's Index to the Internet are all attempts by librarians to take greater control of information production and/or dissemination. Librarians have the critical thinking skills to evaluate information and will use those skills in a broader sense in the future. This will probably happen first with scholarly scientific and technical information, where the role of the journal will decline as librarians work with authors and publishers to introduce other means of distributing and authorizing papers produced by members of their community. The exact form of this involvement is difficult to predict, but librarians will have a greater role in validating authors' works. By the end of the 21st century, libraries will be selecting, organizing, servicing, and creating information.
"The future is not set . . . there is no such thing as Fate, but what we make for ourselves by our own will." Sarah Connor.
We will indeed make our own future. The reference librarian of the future will not be symbolized as the woman sitting behind the desk, but as someone who is readily accessible to everyone in the community and who provides individual information services using whatever technologies become available. By concentrating on the needs of our users, providing personal service, and providing leadership in the information society, the reference librarian will continue to perform an essential function for the community.