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Scholarly Book Publishing: A Dickensian Perspective
June 2008
Whenever I contemplate the future of scholarly book publishing these days, I am reminded of the opening line from Dickens’ A Tale of Two Cities: “It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair.…”
The dramatic tone is consistent with the setting of Dickens’ tale, which is, of course, the French Revolution. And one of the characteristics of revolutions, history tells us, is that they often play out in ways wholly unanticipated, and undesired, by the protagonists. It seems unlikely, for example, that the Parisians who stormed the Bastille in July 1789 were hoping for The Reign of Terror that followed four short years later. To be sure, revolutions can turn out in unexpectedly positive ways as well, and sometimes do. But what all revolutions have in common is unpredictability. As Forrest Gump might have said, “Revolutions are like a box of chocolates. You never know what you’re going to get.”
So if what we are experiencing in scholarly book publishing today is, in fact, a true revolution, and I would submit that it is, what is the likely outcome? History tells us it’s hard to predict, that we can be certain only that at least some of the consequences, possibly the most important ones, will be unanticipated.
That said, it’s only human to want to know, and when we can’t know, to try to guess. And so, with great caution, and no promises of omniscience, here are some of this observer’s personal guesses as to what lies ahead for scholarly book publishing:
- The future of the scholarly monograph is wholly electronic. The last days of the print monograph are nearly upon us. Its death will prove fatal for at least some university presses.
- In at least some of these cases, responsibility for continuing a downsized version of the press’s publishing program will be shifted to the library, which will then have the opportunity to grapple with the quest for a new and sustainable business model.
- Barring the emergence of a new business model, we will see continued, indeed accelerated, consolidation in the scholarly book publishing industry. This will take the form of mergers, consolidations, and the exit from the industry of selected larger, commercial players whose survival instincts are strong and whose resources are sufficient to finance entry into other more rewarding markets.
- Because authors will have a continuing need for publishing outlets, the decline in output from traditional publishers will be largely if not wholly offset by a rapid increase in both digital self-published works and works from new digital publishing houses, which rely heavily on outsourced labor and author funding.
And there you have it, folks. One man’s view of what lies ahead in the world of scholarly book publishing. Is it the best of times, or the worst of times? You decide.--IER
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